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Trump's Iran War Widens Rift With EU 04/09 06:17
When President Donald Trump returned to the White House last year, he was
eager to pick up where he left off by strengthening ties with Europe's right
wing. But now many of those same factions are expressing open revulsion at the
Iran war, rupturing relationships that were supposed to usher in a new
international order.
BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) -- When President Donald Trump returned to the White
House last year, he was eager to pick up where he left off by strengthening
ties with Europe's right wing. But now many of those same factions are
expressing open revulsion at the Iran war, rupturing relationships that were
supposed to usher in a new international order.
Although Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Hungarian Prime Minister
Viktor Orbn this week, such a display has become the exception rather than the
rule among conservatives and far-right leaders in Europe.
Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni refused to let the United States use an air
base in Sicily to launch attacks on Iran. France's National Rally leader Marine
Le Pen described his war goals as "erratic." And the head of Germany's
Alternative for Germany party called for American troops to leave their bases
in the country.
Even with a fragile ceasefire in place with Iran, Trump's support for Orbn
may not work out for the autocratic Hungarian leader, who faces a tough
election this weekend. He's long been an icon for the global right and many
American conservatives who have hoped the Trump administration could replicate
the Hungarian leader's effort to choke off immigration and restructure
government to ensure his Fidesz party stays in power.
That longstanding connection could insulate Orbn from some of the
anti-Trump blowback rattling the rest of Europe, but that's not guaranteed,
said Charles Kupchan, a professor of international relations at Georgetown
University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
"Getting a blessing from Donald Trump is now a mixed blessing," he said.
Iran adds to friction over Greenland
The backlash over the war follows European broad revulsion at Trump's
threats earlier this year against NATO ally Denmark over his demand that the
country give Greenland to the United States.
Trump tied the two issues together on Wednesday, complaining that NATO
didn't help more in recent weeks.
"NATO WASN'T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON'T BE THERE IF WE NEED
THEM AGAIN," he wrote on social media. "REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY
RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!"
Daniel Baer, a former ambassador and State Department official in President
Barack Obama's administration, said the latest round of tension with Europe's
far right shows the limits of Trump's hope of helping nationalist leaders
worldwide.
"Building some sort of international coalition around national chauvinism is
very difficult," said Baer, now with the Carnegie Endowment for Peace. "It's
clear the majority of people in these countries, if not anti-American, have
turned anti-Trump."
Orbn has stood out for not shifting with the anti-Trump political tide in
Europe.
In an interview with conservative British broadcaster GB News last month,
Orbn argued that when it came to the war with Iran, "the question is whether
(Trump) has started a war or a peace."
"It hasn't (been) decided yet, historians will make a decision on that,"
Orbn said. "I think we need some time to understand whether we are moving to
the peace by these strikes, or just the opposite. It's too early to say."
Orbn's caution toward raising any critical word toward Trump goes beyond
shared ideology. The Hungarian leader has for years sought to convince voters
that his close ties with Trump -- as well as with other global figures such as
Russian President Vladimir Putin -- make him uniquely suited to represent
Hungary's interests abroad.
Consequently, he has played up Trump's praise of him to his base, and
campaigned for reelection by assuring Hungarians that his alliance with Trump's
administration is a guarantee of security and prosperity.
Orbn risks backlash with Trump ties
Orbn reveled in the attention from Vance this week. The vice president
slammed Orbn critics in the European Union for what he called "foreign
interference" in the election, even as he stumped for the Hungarian leader.
On Wednesday, Vance briefly discussed what he called a "fragile truce" in
the Iran war during an appearance at an elite higher education institution in
Hungary, which has received generous funding from Orbn's government and is run
by the prime minister's political director.
Vance praised the school for being "an institution that tries to build up
the foundations of Western civilization." The Trump administration has tried to
exert more influence over elite universities in the U.S., echoing Orbn's
agenda in Hungary.
Some analysts are unconvinced of Orbn's strategy, noting that perceptions
of the current U.S. administration have been turning more negative even in
Hungary.
"Vance's visit could have the opposite effect on Orbn's popularity than the
one intended," said Mario Bikarsku, senior Europe analyst at risk intelligence
company Verisk Maplecroft.
Kupchan said most European far-right parties have established political
staying power independent of any American influence, and may not have an
incentive to go along with Trump's agenda.
"Trump's effort to create a transnational movement of far-right populists
may affect the margins, but the main reason you're seeing Reform U.K. and AfD
and National Rally and other far-right parties prosper has little to do with
Trump and more to do with national factors," he said.
Part of that is a global backlash against any party in power. In Europe,
that's mainly benefited the out-of-power far right. But in Hungary, that's put
Orbn's future in jeopardy -- he's been in power for 16 years.
"We're living in an age," Kupchan said, "where being an incumbent sucks."
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